“Tug on anything at all and you’ll find it connected to everything else in the universe.”
—John Muir
This article originally appeared in Museum magazine’s January/February 2025 issue, a benefit of AAM membership.
In foresight, calling something “complex” means it has many different facets, but it also means those facets are inextricably intertwined. In a complex world, tweaking one variable causes a cascade of change. Case in point, the trends examined in this report. A decline in volunteerism deprives society of a very effective way to connect with each other. That disconnect makes it easier to stigmatize the “other,” people you don’t see in your social circles, and to resent policies and programs designed to lift them up. When social media was new and bright with promise, many hoped it would be a digital tool for bringing people together and fostering new connections. While social media has indeed helped people “find their tribe,” sometimes those tribes are supportive and loving communities, other times they are hate-filled echo chambers cultivating resentment and insecurity.
In short, complex systems are resistant to simple solutions. Every choice involves tradeoffs, and planning entails exploring the ripple effects of each decision. A museum might use free digital platforms to expand its reach and impact … but in so doing give up a measure of control to the companies that provide that free access. In the interest of equity, a museum might decide to shift work from volunteer to paid labor, but, as a result, fewer people enjoy the benefits of volunteerism (health, social capital, connections).
In a complex world, planning becomes less like pushing button a, b, or c and more like skillful manipulations of the slide bars on a sound board. How much can we “up the gain” on our digital assets before the future costs of maintaining those assets become too high? How much can we mute our dependence on volunteers before we become inaudible to the community that supports our work? How can planning bring unity to the mix of approaches we use to achieve our missions?
For this reason, I hope you read the chapters in this report as parts of a whole, hearing them in conversation with one another, rather than as stand-alone essays about distinct trends. Digital planning isn’t just about what technologies we use, it’s also about the choices we make regarding autonomy, privacy, and sustainability. Volunteer programs aren’t just a way to do more work with less money, they also provide tangible benefits to individuals and communities. Pursuing diversity, equity, and inclusion is a complicated process of setting clear goals, while navigating legal and cultural barriers, and trying to find common ground around shared values.
I also hope you consider the complexities of these trends both externally—how the museum interfaces with society—and internally—how museum staff and volunteers connect with each other. To paraphrase a proverb, change begins at home. If museums are to help bridge divides in society, foster tolerance and inclusion, and support respectful dialogue on difficult topics, we have to create an internal culture that lives those values.
In addition to trends, our path into the future is shaped by significant events. As I write this introduction in October 2024, we don’t yet know the outcome of one major force of change—the upcoming presidential election. Whoever is sworn in as the 47th president of our country will have a profound effect on the future we will inhabit. I look forward to exploring that world with you, its challenges and opportunities, in the coming year.
Warmest regards from the future,
Elizabeth Merritt
Vice President, Strategic Foresight and Founding Director, Center for the Future of Museums,
American Alliance of Museums
How to Use this Report
Use this edition of TrendsWatch as a catalyst for adapting to your museum’s rapidly changing
environment:
- What role does volunteerism play in your museum’s operations and service to its communities, and how can you provide equitable access to the benefits of volunteering?
- What steps can your museum take to manage the digital risks arising from how you create and store data and your use of commercial programs and platforms?
- How might the current backlash to DEI affect your museum, and what can you do to avoid or manage such pressure?
- How might you create systems that support difficult conversations in the workplace in a productive, mutually respectful manner?
Each article includes a list of things museums might do to tackle these issues. Share this report with your students, clients, colleagues, staff, volunteers, and board of trustees to foster discussion about how your organization will build the post-pandemic future.
What Is TrendsWatch?
TrendsWatch is the annual forecasting report produced by the Center for the Future of Museums (CFM), the American Alliance of Museums’ think tank and idea laboratory for the museum field. Each edition is built on a year’s worth of conversations along with scanning and analysis of news and research. The report goes out to members and subscribers as the January/February issue of Museum magazine, and a PDF version is released on the AAM website at the end of March. You can find dozens of embedded links to original sources for the information referenced in this text in the digital issue of Museum and in the PDF.
The text for this report is written by CFM’s Director, Elizabeth Merritt, with input and advice from many people inside and outside the museum sector. (See p. 1 for a list of people who reviewed and commented on the articles.) We encourage you to join this conversation. Please share your thoughts and questions by:
- Posting to the Future of Museums Community on the Alliance discussion forum Museum Junction at
bit.ly/Future-of-Museums-Community; - Submitting guest posts to the CFM blog; and
- Emailing CFM at futureofmuseums@aam-us.org.
Elizabeth and her colleagues are available to support your work via speaking engagements, workshops, moderating discussions, and consulting. For more information on those services and to request our help, visit the Alliance Advisory Services and Speakers Bureau page on the AAM website.
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